Early Prediction of Disease Progression in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Using C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at an increased risk of progression may promote more individualized treatment schemes and optimize the use of medical resources. This study is aimed at investigating the utility of the C-reactive protein to albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio for early risk stratification of patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 557 patients with COVID-19 with confirmed outcomes (discharged or deceased) admitted to the West Court of Union Hospital, Wuhan, China, between January 29, 2020 and April 8, 2020. Patients with severe COVID-19 (n = 465) were divided into stable (n = 409) and progressive (n = 56) groups according to whether they progressed to critical illness or death during hospitalization. To predict disease progression, the CRP/Alb ratio was evaluated on admission. RESULTS: The levels of new biomarkers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, CRP/Alb ratio, and systemic immune-inflammation index, were higher in patients with progressive disease than in those with stable disease. Correlation analysis showed that the CRP/Alb ratio had the strongest positive correlation with the sequential organ failure assessment score and length of hospital stay in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2), D-dimer levels, and the CRP/Alb ratio were risk factors for disease progression. To predict clinical progression, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of Alb, CRP, CRP/Alb ratio, SpO2, and D-dimer were 0.769, 0.838, 0.866, 0.107, and 0.748, respectively. Moreover, patients with a high CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) had a markedly higher rate of clinical deterioration (log - rank p < 0.001). A higher CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) was also closely associated with higher rates of hospital mortality, ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and a longer hospital stay. CONCLUSION: The CRP/Alb ratio can predict the risk of progression to critical disease or death early, providing a promising prognostic biomarker for risk stratification and clinical management of patients with severe COVID-19.

Severe COVID-19 among patients with asthma and COPD: a report from the Swedish National Airway Register.

BACKGROUND: Patients with obstructive lung diseases may be at risk of hospitalization and/or death due to COVID-19. AIM: To estimate the frequency of severe COVID-19, and COVID-19-related mortality in a well-defined large population of patients with asthma and chronic inflammatory lung disease (COPD). Further to assess the frequency of asthma and COPD as registered comorbidities at discharge from hospital, and in death certificates. METHODS: At the start of the pandemic, the Swedish National Airway Register (SNAR) included 271,404 patients with a physician diagnosis of asthma and/or COPD. In September 2020, after the first COVID-19 wave in Sweden, the database was linked with the National Patient Register (NPR), the Swedish Intensive Care Register and the Swedish Cause of Death Register, which all provide data about COVID-19 based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes. Severe COVID-19 was defined as hospitalization and/or intensive care or death due to COVID-19. RESULTS: Among patients in SNAR, 0.5% with asthma, and 1.2% with COPD were identified with severe COVID-19. Among patients < 18 years with asthma, only 0.02% were severely infected. Of hospitalized adults, 14% with asthma and 29% with COPD died. Further, of patients in SNAR, 56% with asthma and 81% with COPD were also registered in the NPR, while on death certificates the agreement was lower (asthma 24% and COPD 71%). CONCLUSION: The frequency of severe COVID-19 in asthma and COPD was relative low. Mortality for those hospitalized was double as high in COPD compared to asthma. Comorbid asthma and COPD were not always identified among patients with severe COVID-19.

Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK.

BACKGROUND: Studies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use. METHODS: We analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16-49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting ß-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting ß-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma. FINDINGS: 75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16-49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16-49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI 1·05-1·37]; p=0·0080; patients aged ≥50 years: adjusted OR 1·17 [1·08-1·27]; p<0·0001), and patients aged 50 years and older with chronic pulmonary disease (with or without asthma) were significantly less likely than those without a respiratory condition to receive critical care (adjusted OR 0·66 [0·60-0·72] for those without asthma and 0·74 [0·62-0·87] for those with asthma; p<0·0001 for both). In patients aged 16-49 years, only those with severe asthma had a significant increase in mortality compared to those with no asthma (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·17 [95% CI 0·73-1·86] for those on no asthma therapy, 0·99 [0·61-1·58] for those on SABAs only, 0·94 [0·62-1·43] for those on inhaled corticosteroids only, 1·02 [0·67-1·54] for those on inhaled corticosteroids plus LABAs, and 1·96 [1·25-3·08] for those with severe asthma). Among patients aged 50 years and older, those with chronic pulmonary disease had a significantly increased mortality risk, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use, compared to patients without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 1·16 [95% CI 1·12-1·22] for those not on inhaled corticosteroids, and 1·10 [1·04-1·16] for those on inhaled corticosteroids; p<0·0001). Patients aged 50 years and older with severe asthma also had an increased mortality risk compared to those not on asthma therapy (adjusted HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·04-1·49]). In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use within 2 weeks of hospital admission was associated with decreased mortality in those with asthma, compared to those without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·80-0·92]). INTERPRETATION: Underlying respiratory conditions are common in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Regardless of the severity of symptoms at admission and comorbidities, patients with asthma were more likely, and those with chronic pulmonary disease less likely, to receive critical care than patients without an underlying respiratory condition. In patients aged 16 years and older, severe asthma was associated with increased mortality compared to non-severe asthma. In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use in those with asthma was associated with lower mortality than in patients without an underlying respiratory condition; patients with chronic pulmonary disease had significantly increased mortality compared to those with no underlying respiratory condition, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use. Our results suggest that the use of inhaled corticosteroids, within 2 weeks of admission, improves survival for patients aged 50 years and older with asthma, but not for those with chronic pulmonary disease. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, NIHR Health Protection Research Units in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at the University of Liverpool and in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London in partnership with Public Health England.

COVID-19 in CKD Patients: Lessons from 553 CKD Patients with Biopsy-Proven Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients infected with COVID-19 are at risk of serious complications such as hospitalization and death. The prognosis and lethality of COVID-19 infection in patients with established kidney disease has not been widely studied. METHODS: Data included patients who underwent kidney biopsy at the Vall d'Hebron Hospital between January 2013 and February 2020 with COVID-19 diagnosis during the period from March 1 to May 15, 2020. RESULTS: Thirty-nine (7%) patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection. Mean age was 63 ± 15 years and 48.7% were male. Hypertension was present in 79.5%, CKD without renal replacement therapy in 76.9%, and cardiovascular disease in 64.1%. Nasopharyngeal swab was performed in 26 patients; older (p = 0.01), hypertensive (p = 0.005), and immunosuppressed (p = 0.01) patients, those using RAS-blocking drugs (p = 0.04), and those with gastrointestinal symptoms (p = 0.02) were more likely to be tested for CO-VID-19. Twenty-two patients required hospitalization and 15.4% died. In bivariate analysis, mortality was associated with older age (p = 0.03), cardiovascular disease (p = 0.05), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.05), and low hemoglobin levels (p = 0.006). Adjusted Cox regression showed that low hemoglobin levels at admission had 1.81 greater risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CO-VID-19 infection and kidney disease confirmed by kidney biopsy presented a mortality of 15.4%. Swab test for COVID-19 was more likely to be performed in older, hypertensive, and immunosuppressed patients, those using RAS-blocking drugs, and those with gastrointestinal symptoms. Low hemoglobin is a risk factor for mortality.

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing national lockdowns have dramatically changed the healthcare landscape. The pandemic's impact on people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. We hypothesised that the UK-wide lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe COPD exacerbations. We provide the first national level analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on severe COPD exacerbations resulting in emergency hospital admissions and/or leading to death as well as those recorded in primary care or emergency departments. METHODS: Using data from Public Health Scotland and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, we accessed weekly counts of emergency hospital admissions and deaths due to COPD over the first 30 weeks of 2020 and compared these to the national averages over the preceding 5 years. For both Scotland and Wales, we undertook interrupted time-series analyses to model the impact of instigating lockdown on these outcomes. Using fixed-effect meta-analysis, we derived pooled estimates of the overall changes in trends across the two nations. RESULTS: Lockdown was associated with 48% pooled reduction in emergency admissions for COPD in both countries (incidence rate ratio, IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.58), relative to the 5-year averages. There was no statistically significant change in deaths due to COPD (pooled IRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.33). In Wales, lockdown was associated with 39% reduction in primary care consultations for acute exacerbation of COPD (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.71) and 46% reduction in COPD-related emergency department attendances (IRR 0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.81). CONCLUSIONS: The UK-wide lockdown was associated with the most substantial reductions in COPD exacerbations ever seen across Scotland and Wales, with no corresponding increase in COPD deaths. This may have resulted from reduced transmission of respiratory infections, reduced exposure to outdoor air pollution and/or improved COPD self-management.

Beneficial Effect of Statins in COVID-19-Related Outcomes-Brief Report: A National Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although statins are widely prescribed lipid-lowering drugs, there are concerns about the safety of their use in the context of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), since statins increase the expression of ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2). This study aimed to disclose the association between statins and 60-day COVID-19 mortality. Approach and Results: All patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled in this study from January 19 to April 16, 2020, in Korea. We evaluated the association between the use of statins and COVID-19-related mortality in the overall and the nested 1:2 propensity score-matched study. Furthermore, a comparison of the hazard ratio for death was performed between COVID-19 patients and a retrospective cohort of patients hospitalized with pneumonia between January and June 2019 in Korea. The median age of the 10 448 COVID-19 patients was 45 years. Statins were prescribed in 533 (5.1%) patients. After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, Cox regression showed a significant decrease in hazard ratio associated with the use of statins (hazard ratio, 0.637 [95% CI, 0.425-0.953]; P=0.0283). Moreover, on comparing the hazard ratio between COVID-19 patients and the retrospective cohort of hospitalized pneumonia patients, the use of statins showed similar benefits. CONCLUSIONS: The use of statins correlates significantly with lower mortality in patients with COVID-19, consistent with the findings in patients with pneumonia. Graphic Abstract: A graphic abstract is available for this article.

Pulmonary Abnormalities in Liver Disease: Relevance to Transplantation and Outcome.

Pulmonary disease in liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension (PH) constitutes a challenging clinical scenario and may have important implications with regard to prognosis, liver transplantation (LT) candidacy, and post-LT outcome. Pre-LT evaluation should include adequate screening for pulmonary diseases that may occur concomitantly with liver disease as well as for those that may arise as a complication of end-stage liver disease and PH, given that either may jeopardize safe LT and successful outcome. It is key to discriminate those patients who would benefit from LT, especially pulmonary disorders that have been reported to resolve post-LT and are considered "pulmonary indications" for transplant, from those who are at increased mortality risk and in whom LT is contraindicated. In conclusion, in this article, we review the impact of several pulmonary disorders, including cystic fibrosis, alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency, hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia, sarcoidosis, coronavirus disease 2019, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary nodules, interstitial lung disease, hepatic hydrothorax, hepatopulmonary syndrome, and portopulmonary hypertension, on post-LT survival, as well as the reciprocal impact of LT on the evolution of lung function.

Impact of COPD on COVID-19 prognosis: A nationwide population-based study in South Korea.

Underlying chronic respiratory disease may be associated with the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on the risk for respiratory failure and mortality in COVID-19 patients. A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted in 4610 patients (≥ 40 years old) infected with COVID-19 between January 20 and May 27, 2020, using data from the Ministry of Health and Welfare and Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service in Korea. The clinical course and various clinical features were compared between COPD and non-COPD patients, and the risks of respiratory failure and all-cause mortality in COPD patients were analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression model. Among 4610 COVID-19 patients, 4469 (96.9%) and 141 (3.1%) were categorized into the non-COPD and COPD groups, respectively. The COPD group had greater proportions of older (≥ 60 years old) (78.0% vs. 45.2%, P < 0.001) and male (52.5% vs. 36.6%, P < 0.001) patients than the non-COPD group. Relatively greater proportions of patients with COPD received intensive critical care (7.1% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.041) and mechanical ventilation (5.7% vs. 2.4%, P = 0.015). Multivariate analyses showed that COPD was not a risk factor for respiratory failure but was a significant independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (OR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93) after adjustment for age, sex, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. Among COVID-19 patients, relatively greater proportions of patients with COPD received mechanical ventilation and intensive critical care. COPD is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in COVID-19 patients in Korea.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of COPD Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2.

Objective: To describe the characteristics and prognosis of patients with COPD admitted to the hospital due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: The SEMI-COVID registry is an ongoing retrospective cohort comprising consecutive COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Spain since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Data on demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests, radiology, treatment, and progress are collected. Patients with COPD were selected and compared to patients without COPD. Factors associated with a poor prognosis were analyzed. Results: Of the 10,420 patients included in the SEMI-COVID registry as of May 21, 2020, 746 (7.16%) had a diagnosis of COPD. Patients with COPD are older than those without COPD (77 years vs 68 years) and more frequently male. They have more comorbidities (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, kidney failure) and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 vs 1, p<0.001). The mortality rate in COPD patients was 38.3% compared to 19.2% in patients without COPD (p<0.001). Male sex, a history of hypertension, heart failure, moderate-severe chronic kidney disease, presence of cerebrovascular disease with sequelae, degenerative neurological disease, dementia, functional dependence, and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index have been associated with increased mortality due to COVID-19 in COPD patients. Survival was higher among patients with COPD who were treated with hydroxychloroquine (87.1% vs 74.9%, p<0.001) and with macrolides (57.9% vs 50%, p<0.037). Neither prone positioning nor non-invasive mechanical ventilation, high-flow nasal cannula, or invasive mechanical ventilation were associated with a better prognosis. Conclusion: COPD patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection have more severe disease and a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients.

The rise of electronic nicotine delivery systems and the emergence of electronic-cigarette-driven disease.

In 2019, the United States experienced the emergence of the vaping-associated lung injury (VALI) epidemic. Vaping is now known to result in the development and progression of severe lung disease in the young and healthy. Lack of regulation on electronic cigarettes in the United States has resulted in over 2,000 patients and 68 deaths. We examine the clinical representation of VALI and the delve into the scientific evidence of how deadly exposure to electronic cigarettes can be. E-cigarette vapor is shown to affect numerous cellular processes, cellular metabolism, and cause DNA damage (which has implications for cancer). E-cigarette use is associated with a higher risk of developing crippling lung conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which would develop several years from now, increasing the already existent smoking-related burden. The role of vaping and virus susceptibility is yet to be determined; however, vaping can increase the virulence and inflammatory potential of several lung pathogens and is also linked to an increased risk of pneumonia. As it has emerged for cigarette smoking, great caution should also be given to vaping in relation to SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 pandemic. Sadly, e-cigarettes are continually promoted and perceived as a safer alternative to cigarette smoking. E-cigarettes and their modifiable nature are harmful, as the lungs are not designed for the chronic inhalation of e-cigarette vapor. It is of interest that e-cigarettes have been shown to be of no help with smoking cessation. A true danger lies in vaping, which, if ignored, will lead to disastrous future costs.

Machine Learning and Prediction of All-Cause Mortality in COPD.

BACKGROUND: COPD is a leading cause of mortality. RESEARCH QUESTION: We hypothesized that applying machine learning to clinical and quantitative CT imaging features would improve mortality prediction in COPD. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We selected 30 clinical, spirometric, and imaging features as inputs for a random survival forest. We used top features in a Cox regression to create a machine learning mortality prediction (MLMP) in COPD model and also assessed the performance of other statistical and machine learning models. We trained the models in subjects with moderate to severe COPD from a subset of subjects in Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) and tested prediction performance in the remainder of individuals with moderate to severe COPD in COPDGene and Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). We compared our model with the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, exercise capacity (BODE) index; BODE modifications; and the age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction index. RESULTS: We included 2,632 participants from COPDGene and 1,268 participants from ECLIPSE. The top predictors of mortality were 6-min walk distance, FEV1 % predicted, and age. The top imaging predictor was pulmonary artery-to-aorta ratio. The MLMP-COPD model resulted in a C index ≥ 0.7 in both COPDGene and ECLIPSE (6.4- and 7.2-year median follow-ups, respectively), significantly better than all tested mortality indexes (P < .05). The MLMP-COPD model had fewer predictors but similar performance to that of other models. The group with the highest BODE scores (7-10) had 64% mortality, whereas the highest mortality group defined by the MLMP-COPD model had 77% mortality (P = .012). INTERPRETATION: An MLMP-COPD model outperformed four existing models for predicting all-cause mortality across two COPD cohorts. Performance of machine learning was similar to that of traditional statistical methods. The model is available online at: https://cdnm.shinyapps.io/cgmortalityapp/.

Assessment of the Modified CHA2DS2VASc Risk Score in Predicting Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

Since the modified CHA2DS2VASC (M-CHA2DS2VASc) risk score includes the prognostic risk factors for COVID-19; we assumed that it might predict in-hospital mortality and identify high-risk patients at an earlier stage compared with troponin increase and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). We aimed to investigate whether M-CHA2DS2VASC RS is an independent predictor of mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to compare its discriminative ability with troponin increase and NLR in terms of predicting mortality. A total of 694 patients were retrospectively analyzed and divided into 3 groups according to M-CHA2DS2VASC RS which was simply created by changing gender criteria of the CHA2DS2VASC RS from female to male (Group 1, score 0-1 (n = 289); group 2, score 2-3 (n = 231) and group 3, score ≥4 (n = 174)). Adverse clinical events were defined as in-hospital mortality, admission to intensive care unit, need for high-flow oxygen and/or intubation. As the M-CHA2DS2VASC RS increased, adverse clinical outcomes were also significantly increased (Group 1, 3.8%; group 2, 12.6%; group 3, 20.8%; p <0.001 for in-hospital mortality). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that M-CHA2DS2VASC RS, troponin increase and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.005, odds ratio 1.29 per scale for M-CHA2DS2VASC RS). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, comparative discriminative ability of M-CHA2DS2VASC RS was superior to CHA2DS2VASC RS score. Area under the curve (AUC) values for in-hospital mortality was 0.70 and 0.64, respectively. (AUCM-CHA2DS2-VASc vs. AUCCHA2DS2-VASc z test = 3.56, p 0.0004) In conclusion, admission M-CHA2DS2VASc RS may be a useful tool to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Pattern of comorbidities and 1-year mortality in elderly patients with COPD hospitalized in internal medicine wards: data from the RePoSI Registry.

Currently, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents the fourth cause of death worldwide with significant economic burden. Comorbidities increase in number and severity with age and are identified as important determinants that influence the prognosis. In this observational study, we retrospectively analyzed data collected from the RePoSI register. We aimed to investigate comorbidities and outcomes in a cohort of hospitalized elderly patients with the clinical diagnosis of COPD. Socio-demographic, clinical characteristics and laboratory findings were considered. The association between variables and in-hospital, 3-month and 1-year follow-up were analyzed. Among 4696 in-patients, 932 (19.8%) had a diagnosis of COPD. Patients with COPD had more hospitalization, a significant overt cognitive impairment, a clinically significant disability and more depression in comparison with non-COPD subjects. COPD patients took more drugs, both at admission, in-hospital stay, discharge and 3-month and 1-year follow-up. 14 comorbidities were more frequent in COPD patients. Cerebrovascular disease was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. At 3-month follow-up, male sex and hepatic cirrhosis were independently associated with mortality. ICS-LABA therapy was predictor of mortality at in-hospital, 3-month and 1-year follow-up. This analysis showed the severity of impact of COPD and its comorbidities in the real life of internal medicine and geriatric wards.

Prevalence of co-morbidities and their association with mortality in patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To estimate the prevalence of both cardiometabolic and other co-morbidities in patients with COVID-19, and to estimate the increased risk of severity of disease and mortality in people with co-morbidities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medline, Scopus and the World Health Organization website were searched for global research on COVID-19 conducted from January 2019 up to 23 April 2020. Study inclusion was restricted to English language publications, original articles that reported the prevalence of co-morbidities in individuals with COVID-19, and case series including more than 10 patients. Eighteen studies were selected for inclusion. Data were analysed using random effects meta-analysis models. RESULTS: Eighteen studies with a total of 14 558 individuals were identified. The pooled prevalence for co-morbidities in patients with COVID-19 disease was 22.9% (95% CI: 15.8 to 29.9) for hypertension, 11.5% (9.7 to 13.4) for diabetes, and 9.7% (6.8 to 12.6) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), cerebrovascular disease and cancer, the pooled prevalences were all less than 4%. With the exception of cerebrovascular disease, all the other co-morbidities presented a significantly increased risk for having severe COVID-19. In addition, the risk of mortality was significantly increased in individuals with CVD, COPD, CKD, cerebrovascular disease and cancer. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with COVID-19, the presence of co-morbidities (both cardiometabolic and other) is associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality. These findings have important implications for public health with regard to risk stratification and future planning.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of various comorbidities on serious events.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Currently there is limited knowledge on medical comorbidities and COVID-19; we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of various morbidities on serious events in COVID 19. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials were searched on April 28, 2020, to extract published articles that reported the outcomes of COVID-19 patients. The search terms were "coronavirus" and "clinical characteristics". ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, ARDS, Pneumonia, death was considered serious events. The comorbidities assessed in the study were Hypertension (HTN), Diabetes mellitus (DM), Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and Chronic Kidney disease (CKD). Subsequently, comparisons between comorbidity patient group and the non-comorbidity patient groups, in terms of serious events were made using the pooled estimates of odd's ratio (OR) RESULTS: We identified 688 published results and 16 studies with 3994 patients were included in the systematic review. Serious events were seen in 526(13.16%) patients. Presence of hypertension with OR 2.95, diabetes mellitus with OR 3.07, Cardio vascular disease with OR 4.58, COPD with OR 6.66 and Chronic kidney disease with OR 5.32 had significant association in patients with COVID 19 on having serious events. Presence of diabetes mellitus (OR 2.78)) had a significant impact on death in COVID 19 patients with a p-value 0.004. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of medical comorbidities in COVID-19 leads to higher risk of developing serious events i.e. ICU admission, mechanical intubation and mortality. The presence of Diabetes mellitus has a significant impact on mortality rate in COVID-19 patients.

Predicting Mortality Due to SARS-CoV-2: A Mechanistic Score Relating Obesity and Diabetes to COVID-19 Outcomes in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak poses a challenge to health care systems due to its high complication rates in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we identify risk factors and propose a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality, including specific factors for diabetes and obesity, and its role in improving risk prediction. METHODS: We obtained data of confirmed and negative COVID-19 cases and their demographic and health characteristics from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We investigated specific risk factors associated to COVID-19 positivity and mortality and explored the impact of diabetes and obesity on modifying COVID-19-related lethality. Finally, we built a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality. RESULTS: Among the 177 133 subjects at the time of writing this report (May 18, 2020), we observed 51 633 subjects with SARS-CoV-2 and 5,332 deaths. Risk factors for lethality in COVID-19 include early-onset diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, advanced age, hypertension, immunosuppression, and chronic kidney disease (CKD); we observed that obesity mediates 49.5% of the effect of diabetes on COVID-19 lethality. Early-onset diabetes conferred an increased risk of hospitalization and obesity conferred an increased risk for intensive care unit admission and intubation. Our predictive score for COVID-19 lethality included age ≥ 65 years, diabetes, early-onset diabetes, obesity, age < 40 years, CKD, hypertension, and immunosuppression and significantly discriminates lethal from non-lethal COVID-19 cases (C-statistic = 0.823). CONCLUSIONS: Here, we propose a mechanistic approach to evaluate the risk for complications and lethality attributable to COVID-19, considering the effect of obesity and diabetes in Mexico. Our score offers a clinical tool for quick determination of high-risk susceptibility patients in a first-contact scenario.